Abstract: Based on the collection and processing of yield data from multiple Camellia oleifera sample plots in different counties of Hu'nan province during 2006-2013 and temperature,sunshine and precipitation data from the nearby meteorological observation stations during the same period,the quality control of Camellia oleifera yield data was made in order to remove the influences of Camellia oleifera's age,species,and soil on the yield data.Then statistical method was used to analyze impacts of meteorological factors in different phonological phases on Camellia oleifera's yield and to construct Camellia oleifera's yield forecasting model by taking meteorological factors as independent variables.The results show that the key meteorological factors affecting Camellia oleifera's yield are average temperature during flowering,rain days during peaking period of fruit enlargement,sunshine hours during lipid transformation and peak period of accumulation,and average temperature during flower bud maturing.A yield forecasting model constructed by use of the above factors has a relative high accuracy and can be applied in the operation.

Key words: Camellia oleifera, Phenological phase, Meteorological factors, Yield forecasting model